What Happened?

Shares of financial guaranty insurer Assured Guaranty (NYSE: AGO) jumped 6.3% in the afternoon session after the company reported third-quarter 2025 results that significantly surpassed analyst expectations for earnings and revenue. 

The financial guaranty insurer posted adjusted earnings of $2.57 per share, beating consensus estimates by 67.2%. Revenue for the quarter came in at $207 million, which was 12.2% higher than anticipated, although this represented a 23% decline from the same period last year. The company also reported that its book value per share, a key metric for insurers reflecting long-term capital growth, grew 9% year-over-year to $121.13. Investors appeared to focus on the significant earnings beat rather than the year-over-year decline in revenue.

The shares closed the day at $86.90, up 6.7% from previous close.

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What Is The Market Telling Us

Assured Guaranty’s shares are not very volatile and have only had 3 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful, although it might not be something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.

Assured Guaranty is down 2.9% since the beginning of the year, but at $86.88 per share, it is still trading close to its 52-week high of $95.47 from January 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Assured Guaranty’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $2,849.

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