What Happened?
Shares of general merchandise retailer Target (NYSE: TGT) fell 7.6% in the afternoon session after the company reported mixed second quarter earnings. Traffic to its stores fell and gross margin slightly missed. Also, a new CEO was announced. On the other hand, revenue beat slightly, and full-year guidance was maintained. Overall, we think this was a mixed quarter. Investors were likely hoping for more, or were likely disappointed in the CEO announcement.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
Target’s shares are not very volatile and have only had 8 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful, although it might not be something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 8 days ago when the stock gained 3.6% on the news that a tame inflation report boosted investor hopes for an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve. The latest Consumer Price Index data showed the annual inflation rate held steady at 2.7%, reassuring investors who had feared that tariffs could lead to a spike in consumer prices. This milder-than-expected reading gives the Federal Reserve more flexibility to consider lowering interest rates, possibly as soon as next month. A potential rate cut could reduce borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, stimulating more spending and providing a significant boost for the retail industry. Adding to the optimism, reports of a 90-day tariff truce with China further eased concerns about future price pressures.
Target is down 28.7% since the beginning of the year, and at $97.78 per share, it is trading 39.2% below its 52-week high of $160.69 from October 2024. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Target’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $642.26.
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