What a time it’s been for nLIGHT. In the past six months alone, the company’s stock price has increased by a massive 335%, setting a new 52-week high of $34 per share. This was partly thanks to its solid quarterly results, and the run-up might have investors contemplating their next move.
Is now the time to buy nLIGHT, or should you be careful about including it in your portfolio? Check out our in-depth research report to see what our analysts have to say, it’s free for active Edge members.
Why Do We Think nLIGHT Will Underperform?
We’re glad investors have benefited from the price increase, but we don't have much confidence in nLIGHT. Here are three reasons there are better opportunities than LASR and a stock we'd rather own.
1. Long-Term Revenue Growth Disappoints
A company’s long-term sales performance is one signal of its overall quality. Any business can put up a good quarter or two, but the best consistently grow over the long haul. Over the last five years, nLIGHT grew its sales at a sluggish 3.6% compounded annual growth rate. This fell short of our benchmark for the industrials sector.
2. Free Cash Flow Margin Dropping
Free cash flow isn't a prominently featured metric in company financials and earnings releases, but we think it's telling because it accounts for all operating and capital expenses, making it tough to manipulate. Cash is king.
As you can see below, nLIGHT’s margin dropped by 6.4 percentage points over the last five years. Almost any movement in the wrong direction is undesirable because it is already burning cash. If the trend continues, it could signal it’s in the middle of a big investment cycle. nLIGHT’s free cash flow margin for the trailing 12 months was negative 8.5%.
3. New Investments Fail to Bear Fruit as ROIC Declines
A company’s ROIC, or return on invested capital, shows how much operating profit it makes compared to the money it has raised (debt and equity).
We like to invest in businesses with high returns, but the trend in a company’s ROIC is what often surprises the market and moves the stock price. Unfortunately, nLIGHT’s ROIC has decreased significantly over the last few years. Paired with its already low returns, these declines suggest its profitable growth opportunities are few and far between.
Final Judgment
We cheer for all companies making their customers lives easier, but in the case of nLIGHT, we’ll be cheering from the sidelines. Following the recent surge, the stock trades at 3,353× forward P/E (or $34 per share). At this valuation, there’s a lot of good news priced in - we think other companies feature superior fundamentals at the moment. We’d suggest looking at a fast-growing restaurant franchise with an A+ ranch dressing sauce.
Stocks We Would Buy Instead of nLIGHT
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